India and Africa Newsletter
| February Edition |
Gold, Guns & Geopolitics: Rwanda, DRC & The Battle For Eastern Congo
What happens when economic ambition collides with geopolitical turmoil? Rwanda, a small but economically ambitious nation, finds itself at the centre of escalating tensions with its western neighbour, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). While Kigali has positioned itself as a growing trade hub, exporting goods worth approximately $2.5 billion in 2023, equalling around 16% of its GDP — its economic gains are increasingly overshadowed by deepening hostilities with DRC.
Across the border, in Kinshasa, anti-Rwandan protests are intensifying. Demonstrators flood the streets, burning tires and demanding action against what they see as Rwanda’s covert backing of M23 rebels. The accusations aren’t new — Rwanda has long been suspected of supporting the group, which is now pushing toward Goma, a strategic city at risk of falling into rebel hands. Gunfire echoes near its closed airport, fuelling fears of a full takeover.
The roots of this crisis stretch back decades. Eastern Congo, home to an estimated 70% of the world’s coltan reserves and significant gold deposits — producing roughly 35 tonnes annually—has been the battleground for over 100 armed groups. Six million people are estimated internally displaced since 1996. Reports of massacres, sexual violence and child soldier recruitment speak to the ongoing humanitarian disaster. DRC claims Rwanda’s interest isn’t ‘security’, as Kigali suggests, but about controlling the region’s vast mineral wealth. A UN report from December 2024 revealed that roughly 120 tonnes of coltan were illegally transported into Rwanda every four weeks, numbers too large to ignore.
Rwanda’s historical ties to the region complicate the narrative. After the 1994 genocide that saw 800,000 people, mostly Tutsis, slaughtered, thousands of Hutu extremists fled into DRC. Rwanda justifies its military actions in the area as efforts to dismantle the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), a Hutu rebel group it sees as a lingering threat. But critics argue that security concerns are merely cover for sharply strategic economic interests.
On January 26, 2025, DRC severed diplomatic ties with Rwanda, citing Kigali’s alleged military support for M23 rebels and the illegal plundering of its mineral wealth. Kinshasa’s move followed months of escalating tensions, with repeated accusations that Rwanda was funneling arms and logistical support to M23, despite international calls for de-escalation. However, beyond the diplomatic break, DRC’s response has been limited.
While President Félix Tshisekedi has condemned Rwanda’s actions on global platforms, his government has struggled to mount an effective military response, as Congolese forces remain overstretched and under-equipped against the well-organised M23 rebels. DRC has sought support from regional allies, including Angola and South Africa, and has appealed to the UN for stronger intervention, but so far, these efforts have yielded little tangible action. Critics argue severing ties without a clear strategy to counter Rwanda’s influence is “an act of weakness”, signaling frustration rather than strength. Meanwhile, the conflict continues to displace millions and disrupt regional stability. According to Hassan Khannenje of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, “Rwanda’s involvement in DRC isn’t just about minerals — it’s a strategic move rooted in national interest.”
End February, Tshisekedi in a statement announced plans to forge a “national unity government” as he comes under domestic pressure to meet the challenge of rebel takeover of large parts of eastern Congo.
Further read: Congo files a case against Apple for blood minerals- Read
Africa’s Infrastructure Financing: A Pivot To The Dragon
Addressing Africa’s infrastructure deficit requires innovative financing. The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) is exploring ways to support the continent’s $2 trillion infrastructure gap. The Lagos-based multilateral development finance institution is in discussions with banks to issue Sukuk and Panda bonds, in a bid to diversify funding sources and attract global investors for large-scale projects across Africa.
The planned Sukuk issuance builds on AFC’s previous success in Islamic finance, following its $230 million Sukuk bond in 2017, the first-ever by an African supranational entity. AFC is also preparing to issue a Panda bond — a renminbi-denominated bond in China’s capital markets —by end 2025. The idea is to expand AFC’s investor base and tapping into China’s deep liquidity pools to secure alternative funding. Such diverse capital-raising strategies are aimed at closing the funding gap and achieve financing of $2 trillion by 2040.
Further read: UAE pledges $97B in Africa- Read
Eskom’s Decline: South Africa’s Energy Renaissance
South Africa’s energy landscape is undergoing significant transformation. Historically dominated by state-owned utility Eskom, the sector’s seeing a surge in renewable energy adoption. Since 2008, households and businesses have embraced solar and wind power, the shift accelerating notably since 2021. In fiscal 2023-2024, Eskom’s energy output declined to 204.69 TWh, a decrease from 205.90 TWh in 2021. This reduction is attributed to the rise of independent power producers (IPPs) and enhanced energy efficiency.
Despite Eskom’s total generation capacity of 53,089 MW, complemented by an additional 6 GW from IPPs, the utility’s maximum hourly demand in 2024 stood at 32,043 MW, resulting in a surplus. Reason also being consumers opting for cost-effective renewable alternatives of solar and wind power. Eskom’s frequent price hikes made renewable energy sources even more attractive.
In 2023, during widespread power outages, many South Africans turned to private solar installations, a trend that continues despite fewer outages in 2024. This shift has created “duck curves”, where midday dips in electricity demand occur due to solar generation, reducing Eskom’s sales during the day. As more homes and businesses invest in solar power, these seasonal fluctuations in demand are expected to grow more pronounced.
Tariff hikes that once worked for Eskom — is turning unsustainable as more consumers switch to alternatives. Eskom may need to rethink pricing, restructure operations, or increase collaboration with IPPs. The next few years will determine whether Eskom’s decline is a temporary blip or a sign of a brighter, more diverse energy future for South Africa.
Further reads: South Africa open to Nuclear Bids from Russia and Iran: Read
Nigerian Power’s Call To Investors
Nigeria’s power sector is at a pivotal juncture, requiring substantial investment to address chronic electricity shortages. At the World Bank Energy Summit in Tanzania on January 28, 2025, its federal government unveiled an ambitious plan to attract $15 billion in private investments, aiming to bridge a $23 billion funding gap and provide electricity to 86 million Nigerians currently without power. The initiative is part of efforts to enhance energy infrastructure and reduce reliance on costly subsidies.
To ease the financial burden on consumers, the government announced a subsidy of 50 KWh per month for households, delivered either through direct consumption or vouchers. Despite Nigeria’s abundant gas reserves, hydro potential, and ample sunlight, the country generates only 13,000 MW for a population of over 200 million, leading to frequent blackouts and a reliance on private generators for those who can afford them.
Power minister Adebayo Adelabu said Nigeria is committed to increasing renewable energy share from 22% to 50% over the next five years. It also plans to more than double the number of households connected to the grid annually. The government aims to implement a cost-reflective tariff system by 2027, with provisions to cushion the impact on vulnerable households. However, sustainability of electricity subsidies has been called into question. In April 2024, Adelabu highlighted the financial strain, revealing the government spent an estimated ₦2.9 trillion on subsidies — accounting for 67% of power production costs and more than 10% of the national budget.
Despite removing electricity subsidies for approximately 15% of urban households last year — a move that led to a tripling of tariffs — the government continues to grapple with mounting subsidy expenditures. President Bola Tinubu has also engaged in international financial discussions, securing a $1.57 billion loan from World Bank last September to improve energy infrastructure. Additionally, Nigeria has signed key infrastructure and finance deals with France, further underscoring its commitment to long-term power sector reforms.
Further read: Energy-starved Nigeria flares most gas in four years- Read
The Sudan War: Elections Ahead?
The ongoing conflict in Sudan originates from a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemeti, leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Their rivalry traces back to the 2019 ousting of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir, following mass protests. Despite public demands for civilian governance, the military seized control in 2021, with al-Burhan and Hemeti sharing an uneasy alliance.
Root of conflict | Al-Bashir’s removal led to a power vacuum, the military retaining control instead of transitioning to civilian rule. The fragile power-sharing agreement between al-Burhan and Hemeti collapsed into open conflict in April 2023. Hemeti, a warlord with foreign alliances, had been strengthening the RSF, a paramilitary group that evolved from the Janjaweed militias notorious for atrocities in Darfur. Ethnic tensions, particularly in Darfur, have intensified the conflict, with RSF accused of targeting non-Arab tribes such as the Zaghawa, Fur and Masalit. Reports suggest Hemeti and RSF have received support from foreign entities, including alleged weapon supplies from UAE. RSF has also collaborated with Russian mercenary groups and deployed fighters to conflicts in Libya and Yemen.
Conflicts & interests | Russia, aligning with Sudan’s military-led government, seeks to expand its strategic presence in Africa, evidenced by its February 2025 agreement to establish a naval base on Sudan’s Red Sea coast, securing access to key maritime routes. Additionally, its deep involvement in Sudan’s gold trade and military cooperation highlights its broader goal of countering Western influence and maintaining economic leverage.
UAE, which supports RSF, has invested heavily in Sudan’s agriculture and infrastructure but faces accusations of arming RSF factions, leading to Sudan expelling Emirati diplomats in December 2023 over allegations of backing rebels. It is interesting that UAE has yet emerged as a leading investor in the region.
Saudi Arabia maintains a neutral stance. It prioritises economic stability and regional security, balancing ties between Sudan’s warring factions to protect its Red Sea interests. Egypt, backing Sudan’s army, views the country’s stability as crucial for securing its Nile water rights and regional influence, fearing RSF control could disrupt its strategic interests in the Horn of Africa.
The US and its Western allies generally support Sudan’s military leadership, advocating for democratic transition while imposing sanctions on actors fueling conflict. When it comes to Sudan’s power struggle, the global heavyweights have picked their corners — Washington preaches democracy while backing the military, slapping sanctions on troublemakers, while Beijing plays the long game, keeping both sides close to protect its Belt and Road bets.
Israel’s normalisation of ties with Sudan reflects its security-driven approach, fostering intelligence cooperation and counterterrorism efforts, while Sudan benefits from economic partnerships and diplomatic recognition essential for its post-conflict reintegration.
What is happening? | Sudan’s location, between Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea and South Sudan, and its proximity to the Red Sea, makes it a strategic point for Russia and UAE. But its economic opportunities are limited due to heavy indebtedness, poor economy, and high inflation rate.
With over 10 million displaced, widespread allegations of war crimes and involvement of external powers has made Sudan a battleground for proxy wars, triggering regional instability. RSF is accused of shelling civilian areas, initiating sieges, and targeting non-Arab populations, potentially committing war crimes, particularly against the Zaghawa community. It is believed that its actions constitute genocide, the allegation being probed by International Criminal Court.
In response to the prolonged conflict, Sudan’s foreign ministry earlier in February announced plans for a transitional government leading to elections, and urged RSF to cease hostilities and engage in political dialogue. The international community’s support is crucial for a democratic transition of power to succeed in Sudan.
Further read: Sudan army-aligned foreign ministry sets path to elections amid civil war- Read
France Hands Over 3,500 Prehistoric Artifacts to Ethiopia
In other news, France has commenced on a mission to return around 3,500 archaeological treasures to Ethiopia, marking a significant step in rectifying historical imbalances. The initiative was spotlighted on November 30, 2024, when French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot handed over two prehistoric stone axes and a cutter to Ethiopia’s Tourism Minister Selamawit Kassa at Addis Ababa’s National Museum. These artefacts, unearthed from the Melka Kunture site — a prehistoric hotspot south of the capital — were excavated in surveys led by late French researcher Jean Chavaillon.
Source: National Museum of Ethiopia in Addis Ababavt_oia / CC licence
Laurent Serrano, cultural advisor at the French embassy, interestingly emphasised that the event was a “handover, not restitution”, clarifying these items were held for research since the 1980s and were never part of France’s public collections. The complete collection is slated for transfer to the Ethiopian Heritage Directorate. This move aligns with a global movement advocating for the return of cultural artifacts to their rightful homes. Ethiopia has been vocal in seeking repatriation of heritage items taken during colonial-era expeditions. Notably, in December 2022, France returned 740 artifacts, including ancient stone tools and animal remains, to Ethiopia.
Shifting geopolitical realities have meant France’s influence in Africa stands challenged, with several nations re-evaluating their ties with Paris. This handover exemplifies a commitment to rectifying historical wrongs, apart from ethical archaeology. Reports suggest Ethiopia has formally requested the return of more cultural treasures from France; however, official responses are pending.
Further read:
The Africa Renaissance: Read
Africa’s Democracy Dilemma: High Demand, Low Supply Afro Barometer’s latest report-Read
