ANANTA INSIGHTS
India and Neighbourhood | October 2024
Welcome to the October edition of Ananta Insights on India and its Neighbourhood, our monthly survey of developments in South Asia.
SRI LANKA
The new President’s acid test
The September 21, 2024 election propelled the Marxist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake to the presidency in Sri Lanka. Dissanayake assumed office with a promise to pull the country out of the economic crisis that ignited the street protests of 2022. Years of reckless spending had depleted Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves, leading to the crisis as the government struggled to pay for essential imports and the country was declared in default.
The government of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe negotiated with Sri Lanka’s major creditors on the terms of repayment. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which India supported, resulted in partial debt restructuring, but future economic stability will require a careful examination of Sri Lanka’s economic management practices.
The economic blueprint proposed by Dissanayake centres on transitioning Sri Lanka from a service-based economy to a production-based one. The government aims to concentrate on industries including manufacturing, agriculture, and information technology to lower the dependence on imports and encourage self-sufficiency. It also proposes to invest in human capital by spending more on healthcare and education in order to build a healthy and trained labour force that can drive economic expansion.
Dissanayake’s party and political coalition, which were on the fringes of Sri Lanka’s politics before the economic crisis and protests of 2022, rode the wave of popular discontent with a pro-working class and anti-traditional elite campaign. On his way to the country’s highest office, Dissanayake, or AKD as he is called, swept aside Wickremesinghe and scions of two powerful Sri Lankan political families, Sajith Premadasa and Namal Rajapaksa.
Soon after taking office, the new President called parliamentary elections in November to cement his hold on power. Whether his policies can rescue Sri Lanka from its acute political and economic crisis remains to be seen.
Further reading:
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Dr Harini Amarasuriya becomes 3rd woman PM of SL – Ceylon Today
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https://island.lk/prez-akd-pledges-to-create-law-abiding-nation/
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Will not allow anti-India acts on our soil: Sri Lanka president
PAKISTAN
Government’s attempt at judicial reform triggers fresh political controversy
The ruling Pakistan Muslim League (N) has initiated constitutional reforms aimed at giving the executive greater control over the judiciary. The proposed reforms, which include a reshaping of the judiciary and the establishment of a new constitutional court, have triggered opposition from both Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and civil society. The PTI has accused the government of “modifying the idea of restoration of democracy” by executive order.
The so-called “constitutional package” includes more than fifty proposals, the majority of which pertain to the judiciary. Key recommendations include the establishment of a new Federal Constitutional Court, changes to judges’ retirement age and tenure, and increased government oversight of the judicial system. While the government claims that the reforms are necessary to improve governance and ensure accountability, critics contend they are intended to undermine the independence of the judiciary.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government has been accused of being secretive and avoiding public scrutiny and debate on the draft Bill. The federal law minister’s inadvertent disclosure of receiving the draft bill on a Sunday evening reinforced the perception of disarray and mismanagement. The spectacle has served to increase suspicions around the government’s intentions, and to strengthen the narrative of the opposition.
Further reading:
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Imran Khan orders PTI leadership to halt all negotiations with establishment
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PM Shehbaz calls for regional cooperation, inclusivity at SCO summit in Islamabad
AFGHANISTAN
Persisting concern over the oppression of women under Taliban rule
Hollywood actress Meryl Streep said last month that “cats have more freedom than Afghan women”. She called for decisive action by the international community against the increased restrictions on Afghan women to help ensure they can lead lives of freedom and dignity.
In August, Taliban supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada approved an edict prohibiting women from speaking in public or making their voices heard, even from within their homes, effectively excluding them from every aspect of public life and denying them basic human rights. The code requires women to be covered from head to toe in public, a violation of their bodily autonomy and a form of psychological oppression.
The restrictions imposed by the Taliban on Afghan women have created a humanitarian crisis that also impedes Afghanistan’s advancement. A robust response from the international community must hold the leaders of the regime responsible for these atrocities. Afghan and international women’s rights activists at the United Nations repeated their call for continued support to women and girls in the country, and for ensuring their access to the entire gamut of fundamental humanitarian rights, including those of speech, education, employment, and public participation.
Further reading:
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Russia: Removing Taliban from banned groups list will be a slow process – Khaama Press
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Mujahid: UN Should Implement Positive Changes in Its Policy | TOLOnews
MYANMAR
India’s concerns over security, regional stability
India is reported to have extended an unprecedented invitation to Myanmar’s anti-junta forces for a seminar in mid-November in New Delhi, to be hosted by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA). The non-state actors who have been invited include the parallel National Unity Government (NUG), the Chin National Front, the Arakan Army, and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). India’s intention to promote regional stability and Myanmar’s unity is apparent, though the specific objectives of the seminar are not clear yet.
Western powers have largely condemned the junta led by Myanmar’s military State Administration Council (SAC). India’s approach has been less critical; it has engaged with the generals through official visits and diplomatic channels. India’s approach of engaging with the SAC while maintaining minimal contact with the exiled government (NUG) is part of a pragmatic strategy that allows it to keep its options open in Myanmar. While this may limit its ability to directly promote democracy in that country, it could provide opportunities for exerting some indirect influence.
India’s concern about the security and stability of its border with Myanmar was voiced by External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar during the BIMSTEC Foreign Ministers’ Retreat in July 2024. Among India’s ongoing connectivity projects in Myanmar are the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project (KMTTP) and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway. The seminar in New Delhi could aim to engage with all stakeholders, as well as encourage the anti-junta forces to moderate their positions and engage in a more constructive dialogue.
Meanwhile, the Assam Riffles (AR) will implement a combination of physical and smart fencing to secure the border. This includes installing CCTV cameras and motion sensors along the proposed 1643-kilometre border fence between India and Myanmar. Implementation of the fencing project is crucial to address the significant influx of drugs and weapons from across the porous border, especially in view of the ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur.
Further reading:
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Camps Flood on Kayah Border, Forcing 2,500 War Victims Into Myanmar Battlezone
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Let’s cultivate Myanmar seafarers to shape the maritime industry
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UN investigators monitoring reports of planned executions in Myanmar
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34 countries including Palestine, Syria and Myanmar apply for BRICS membership
BANGLADESH
A complex task for Indian strategy and diplomacy
The attacks on the minority Hindu community in Bangladesh continue. India has expressed concern over incidents that took place during Durga Puja, including the theft of a crown that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had gifted earlier to a venerated Kali shrine in Bangladesh. India did not respond favourably to a request by Bangladesh for a meeting between Mohammad Yunus, Chief Advisor to the Bangladesh government, and Prime Minister Modi last month.
India has a complex and delicate task in Bangladesh, where it must walk the tightrope to successfully safeguard the stability of the bilateral relationship and to uphold its strategic interests in the region. Following the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina regime, India restricted its border crossings with Bangladesh, but subsequently reopened the Petrapole (India)-Benapole (Bangladesh) land port. Cross-border smuggling and rebel activity can create significant problems in India’s Northeastern states. The influx of illegal immigrants has major economic, social, and security implications for India.
The law and order situation in Bangladesh and the increasingly loud anti-India posturing by radical elements were on the agenda of meetings during the visit of the senior US official Donald Lu to India in September. The US is keen to restrict China in the Indo-Pacific, and will be watching any potentially destabilizing shift in Bangladeshi policy towards Pakistan and China.
Further reading:
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Bangladesh’s recovery will need regulated financial institutions – ANANTA CENTRE
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India, the US both need a stable Bangladesh | The Daily Star
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Army chief pledges support for interim govt to hold elections within 18 months | Prothom Alo
MALDIVES
A turnaround in attitude towards India, to the mutual benefit of both countries
Recent diplomatic overtures by the Maldives towards India appear to be driven by a pressing need for debt relief. President Mohamed Muizzu made reassuring statements during his visit to India earlier this month, which underscored his acknowledgement of India’s economic and strategic importance in the region.
Muizzu’s government came to power on an “India Out” platform, and exhibited contradictory positions towards India in its initial months. The evolution, thereafter, of the Maldivian government’s attitude towards India from skepticism and hostility to cooperation and dependence is very significant.
Ahead of the President’s visit, India granted a second rolling over of the $50 million Treasury Bill for an additional year, extending a crucial financial lifeline to its Indian Ocean neighbour. During their meeting in New Delhi, President Muizzu and Prime Minister Modi undertook a comprehensive review of the entire gamut of bilateral ties, and noted the progress made by both countries in deepening their historically close relationship.
Further reading:
