ANANTA INSIGHTS
India and Neighbourhood | February 2025
Welcome to the February edition of Ananta Insights on India and its Neighbourhood, our monthly survey of developments in South Asia.
AFGHANISTAN
Evolving Dynamics: India’s Engagement with the Taliban
The recent high-level meeting between Vikram Misri, Foreign Secretary of India and Amir Khan Muttaqi, the Taliban Foreign Minister, in Dubai signals a clear departure from India’s initial stance, with the aim of re-establishing a degree of influence in Afghanistan. The rapid ascension of the Taliban in 2021 significantly impacted India’s considerable investments in Afghanistan, jeopardizing years of strategic endeavors focused on promoting a stable and democratic country.
The meeting marked a decisive milestone in India’s strategic approach of ‘cautious engagement’ with the Taliban. It has been more than three years since the Taliban took control of Afghanistan. They have transitioned from insurgency to governing authority, imposed their interpretation of Islamic law, and sought to strengthen their claim to legitimacy. Leena Rikkila Tamang of International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance points out that the Taliban derive their perceived right to rule from their specific understanding of religion and culture, not from the Afghan population. She contrasts this with the typical markers of governmental legitimacy, which include public confidence, international recognition, and democratic processes, all of which the Taliban lack.
A key aspect of India’s changed stance is the acknowledgement of the de facto legitimacy of the Taliban government. Although it does not constitute official recognition, this engagement enhances the credibility of the Taliban regime, which is vital for its pursuit of global acceptance.
While this should not be viewed as a total shift in India’s policy, New Delhi has kept open backchannel communications with the Taliban to avoid a complete breakdown in relations like in the 1990s. India closed its Kabul embassy in 1996 as the Taliban advanced, and then supported the Northern Alliance, led by Ahmed Shah Massoud, against the Taliban, in partnership with Iran and Russia. Consequently, Misri’s meeting in Dubai indicates progress in existing interactions rather than a significant change of approach.
India’s involvement in Afghanistan is rooted in its historical and cultural bonds, and is further shaped by the current geopolitical climate. The growing friction between Afghanistan and Pakistan, fueled by Pakistan's accusations of the Taliban sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, creates a space for India to engage with the region.
India’s engagement is also driven by its desire to enhance connectivity with Central Asia. Afghanistan can act as a vital conduit, offering access to Central Asian markets that are otherwise inaccessible due to Pakistan’s denial of transit rights. The development of Iran’s Chabahar port, aimed at circumventing reliance on Pakistani ports, is a key component of this strategy. Engaging with the Taliban could facilitate smoother logistical operations and enhance India’s regional connectivity goals.
The international community has yet to formally recognize the government in Kabul. New Delhi’s diplomatic engagement with the Taliban reflects a strategic recalibration aimed at reclaiming influence in Afghanistan, counterbalancing Pakistan’s regional assertiveness, and securing its interests in Central Asia. The success of this approach will depend on its ability to balance strategic objectives with the commitment to democratic principles and regional stability – a delicate balancing act that will shape the future of India’s role in both Afghanistan and the wider South Asian region.
Further reading
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Trump and Defense Secretary to review failed Afghanistan withdrawal, will call for General firings | Khaama Press
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Ministry of Education Signs Literacy Agreement with 25 Govt Institutions | TOLOnews
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Afghanistan stun England with thrilling 8-run win in CT game | Pajhwok Afghan News
PAKISTAN
Tensions Along the Durand Line: The Pak-Afghan Feud
The escalation of tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan is rooted in deep-seated security concerns and unresolved border disputes. Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of harbouring and supporting the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who have launched attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan from their bases in Afghanistan, threatening Pakistani internal security and its military.
Pakistan’s frustration stems from its perception that the rulers in Kabul have failed to take steps against these militant groups. This perceived inaction has led Pakistan to conduct cross-border airstrikes on suspected TTP bases, which has further strained bilateral relations. Pakistan’s initial optimism that the return of the Taliban to power would bring stability to the region has been replaced by concerns that the ideological alignment of the Afghan regime with groups like the TTP is fuelling cross-border militancy. This is a significant setback for Pakistan’s regional security objectives.
Disputes over the Durand Line, the internationally recognized border, remain a significant source of friction. Afghan authorities have objected to Pakistan’s efforts to fence the border and increase patrolling. The disagreements over border management stem from a fundamental divergence in perspectives between the two sides.
In September 2023, Pakistan launched its “Illegal Foreigners’ Repatriation Plan” to push back hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees living in its territory. According to the UN Refugee Agency, an estimated 1.375 million undocumented Afghans were living in Pakistan at the time, and Pakistani authorities have so far repatriated more than 830,000 individuals across the border. While Pakistan has been traditionally tolerant of refugees fleeing war in Afghanistan, its current attitude has been shaped by grievances against the Taliban regime as well as its economic crisis and overall strained resources.
Further reading
BANGLADESH
Unquiet Border With India: Crime and Other Challenges
The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government in August 2024 has intensified the complex challenges along the 4,096-kilometre border between India and Bangladesh. As Indian security forces have cracked down on smuggling and illegal immigration, the regime in Dhaka has sought to push back.
The illicit cattle trade is estimated to involve an estimated 20 lakh heads of cattle annually, and generate significant revenues for a range of stakeholders, including some Bangladeshi authorities manning the border. The illicit economic incentive has fostered vested interests in the status quo, and complicated efforts to curb smuggling.
The border clashes of 8 January spotlight the fragility of the situation. India’s resumption of fencing work triggered objections from the Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB) and led to violent confrontations between border residents. Allegations of the Border Security Force (BSF) fatally shooting a Bangladeshi citizen led to a rise in tensions. India has cited pressing security concerns, including the need to combat cross-border crime, as justification for fencing the porous border.
However, the physical challenges of securing the border are significant. Approximately 840 kilometres remain unfenced due to problems of land acquisition and difficult terrain, including riverine areas prone to shifting courses of rivers. This includes 174.5 kilometres of “non-feasible gap”. Wear and tear in the existing fencing, and corruption by personnel on both sides contributes to the porosity of the border, which is exploited by criminals involved in the narcotics and counterfeit currency trades. Human trafficking is also a major problem.
The rise of Islamist forces following the fall of Hasina, and Bangladesh’s economic slide have complicated the border situation further. India has old and friendly ties as well as deep stakes in Bangladesh, and it must address the present situation through a nuanced strategy that balances security concerns with diplomatic outreach to the government in Dhaka. Combating corruption, strengthening border security, and fostering bilateral cooperation are crucial to the success of this strategy.
Further reading
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Uncertain Diplomatic Shift: Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy and Its Internal Logic
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India’s hostile neighbourhood & how it has responded to Bangladesh-Pakistan axis backed by China
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Wahiduddin: Bangladesh seeks fairness in relations with India
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Yunus invites Elon Musk to visit Bangladesh, launch satellite-based internet service
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Army on alert as Bangladesh deploys Turkish drones near border – India Today
SRI LANKA
Securing the Waters: Partnership on Defence and Regional Stability
Sri Lanka is a key Indian partner in the strategic Indian Ocean Region. Driven by shared concerns, New Delhi and Colombo have been working to strengthen their defence against maritime threats, terrorism, and transnational crime, and to secure a vital artery of global commerce.
India’s imperative of a stable and secure maritime environment aligns seamlessly with Sri Lanka’s need to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The dialogue in February between Santosh Jha, India’s High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, and Air Vice Marshal Sampath Thuyacontha (retd), the Sri Lankan Defence Secretary, centred on regional security and maritime cooperation, and recognised the need for regular dialogue built on trust and transparency to address common challenges.
President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s reiteration of Sri Lanka’s commitment to not allow its territory to be used in a manner that is inimical to India’s security has strengthened the partnership. This assurance is important for India in the Indian Ocean Region.
The tangible aspects of the cooperation, such as joint naval exercises, information-sharing, and capacity-building are vital for enhancing Sri Lanka’s maritime domain awareness. India’s provision of a Dornier aircraft for maritime surveillance and the establishment of a Maritime Rescue and Coordination Centre in Sri Lanka are evidence of its commitment to bolstering Sri Lanka’s defence capabilities. India’s role as a ‘first responder’ in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief underscores its reliability as a trusted partner. The two navies recently collaborated in seizing vessels involved in narcotics trafficking, demonstrating the practical benefits of their joint efforts.
The exploration of a framework Agreement on Defence Cooperation will provide a structured foundation for future collaboration. Cooperation in hydrography will enhance maritime safety and security. The provision of defence platforms and assets will augment Sri Lanka’s defence capabilities, while intensified joint exercises and maritime surveillance will enhance operational readiness.
Addressing the threat of terrorism remains a crucial aspect of the partnership. Both countries have experienced the devastating impact of terrorism, and intelligence-sharing, joint training exercises, and cooperation in counter-terrorism operations are essential to address future threats. The evolving geopolitical landscape, marked by the increasing presence of extra-regional powers, underlines the importance of collaboration to safeguard shared maritime interests and the freedom of navigation.
Capacity-building is another vital component of the partnership. India’s assistance in training, equipment supply, and infrastructure development strengthens Sri Lanka’s security apparatus, and enables it to address emerging threats effectively.
Balancing India’s regional influence with Sri Lanka’s desire for strategic autonomy requires astute diplomacy. Addressing concerns about potential Indian domination and ensuring transparency in defence cooperation is crucial for maintaining a sustainable partnership.
Both nations must prioritize mutual respect, open communication, and a clear understanding of each other’s strategic priorities. By fostering a relationship built on trust and cooperation, India and Sri Lanka can effectively address common threats, promote stability in the Indian Ocean region, and safeguard their shared interests.
Further reading
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https://www.sundayobserver.lk/2025/02/02/opinion/44190/adani-controversy/
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All Govt offices to be shifted to State-owned buildings? – Ceylon Today
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Technical discussions ongoing to implement India’s DigiLocker in Sri Lanka – envoy
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Sri Lanka: Wickremesinghe Flustered During Head-to-Head Interview with Mehdi Hasan
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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit Sri Lanka in April? – Breaking News | Daily Mirror
MALDIVES
Defence Cooperation: An Enduring Strategic Imperative
The India-Maldives Defence Dialogue on 8 January underscored the enduring importance of bilateral defence cooperation, despite political changes in that country. The talks between India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and his Maldivian counterpart Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon focused on reaffirming and strengthening existing ties, addressing mutual security concerns, and outlining future collaborative initiatives.
While political changes in Maldives have presented challenges, the defence dialogue has demonstrated the resilience of the bilateral relationship. The continued focus on practical cooperation, such as maritime security and capacity-building, reflects a shared commitment to maintaining a stable and secure Indian Ocean region.
The long-term strategic partnership between India and the Maldives remains key to regional stability. This is especially because of the strategic geographical location of the islands close to international shipping lanes that connect the choke points of the Gulf of Aden and Strait of Hormuz in the west with the Strait of Malacca in the east, critical for global trade and energy flows.
The two countries reiterated their commitment to safeguarding the Indian Ocean Region from traditional and non-traditional threats, including piracy, terrorism, and illegal maritime activities.
The dialogue also highlighted India’s continued commitment to capacity-building within the Maldivian defence forces. This includes training programs, equipment provision, and infrastructure development, aimed at enhancing the Maldives’ ability to independently address its security challenges.
Both India and the Maldives recognize the importance of maintaining close defence ties. The dialogue offered an opportunity to coordinate their approaches and ensure that their defence cooperation remains relevant and effective in addressing emerging security challenges.
Further reading:
