Puntland’s Power Play: Terror, Tensions, and India’s IOR Move
The impact of Puntland’s measures to stop terror financing is likely multifold. While in step with West’s objectives, it can exacerbate tensions within the region, especially with the Somalian government. Meanwhile, India, aiming to be a major IOR security provider, must invest in boosting its maritime capacity for both geopolitical and security reasons.
The Horn of Africa — particularly Somalia and Ethiopia — is not only of key strategic interest to security and geopolitics of mainland Africa but holds as much significance as a part of Indian Ocean Rim groupings, where India is looking to grow its capacity, reach and influence.
Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia, has emerged as a key player for both fronts. In recent months, Puntland’s administration has intensified counterterrorism efforts, specifically targeting the Islamic State (IS) faction operating within its borders. This crackdown, concentrated in the mountainous regions of Bari and strategic port city of Bosaso, displays Puntland’s determination to disrupt extremist financing and dismantle militant networks.
While such efforts have received praise for helping to improve region’s security, they also carry broader geopolitical implications, especially concerning Somalia’s complex federal structure and sub-regional counterterror dynamics. Addressing these challenges requires decisive and sustained action. India appears to be taking its initial steps in engaging with the region.
Despite growing importance of maritime security, India’s naval budget remains modest. The government announced a ₹250 billion ($3 billion) Maritime Development Fund to bolster India’s shipbuilding and repair industry. The government will contribute 49% of said fund, with private sector supplying the remainder. The goal is to develop world-class infrastructure and reduce reliance on foreign carriers. However, Indian shipbuilding costs remain 20-30% higher than global standards, and state-owned shipyards continue to face delays and cost overruns.
While projects for commissioning of indigenous aircraft carrier INS Vikrant in 2022 are signs of significant progress, technical and organisational challenges persist, limiting Navy’s ability to achieve complete self-reliance.
India’s 75,000-person navy is significantly smaller than China’s 250,000 active maritime forces. Similarly, India’s submarine fleet, comprising 19 vessels (that includes two ballistic missile submarines INS Arihant and INS Arighaat, and 15 diesel-electric attack submarines), is dwarfed by China’s fleet of more than 70 submarines, adding around five new ones annually, and includes by most official estimates 12 SSBNs, 15 nuclear-attack submarines, and over 50 diesel-attack submarines. Bridging this gap will require substantial investment and modernisation, especially as China continues to expand its presence in the IOR through Belt and Road Initiative and military bases like in Djibouti.
India aspires to be a net security provider in IOR. This may necessitate closer alignment with the US and other Western powers. Collaborations such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and bilateral maritime partnerships with France and the US have facilitated joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing, and arms procurement. For instance, India’s acquisition of advanced US systems like the MH-60R Seahawk helicopters and P-8I Poseidon aircraft has enhanced its maritime surveillance capabilities. Additionally, India’s naval cooperation with France, including joint patrols and supply of Rafale-M fighter jets for aircraft carriers, strengthens its presence in the region. However, such partnerships risk undermining India’s traditional stance of non-alignment and independent foreign policy. Striking a balance between leveraging Western partnerships and preserving strategic autonomy is a complex task, particularly as India navigates its role as a leader of the Global South.
To enhance its maritime capabilities and infrastructure, India needs to address budgetary constraints, capability gaps, and the delicate balance between strategic partnerships and autonomy to effectively position itself in the IOR.
Situated on IOR’s western front, Puntland’s regional government has banned the unregulated entry for migrants as part of intensified efforts to crack down on IS’s financial networks. Over 300 undocumented individuals were arrested and access to SIM cards and banking services restricted for unverified people. Security forces launched operations in the Alimiskaad and Al-Madow mountains, dismantling IS strongholds. IS’s financial influence extends beyond Somalia to Kenya, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The group primarily operates through extortion, taxes, and illicit trade, with Bosaso a financial hub.
Source: AP news
But Puntland’s crackdown has also raised questions about its broader political and strategic calculations. While former intelligence chief Abdirahman Yusuf Farah emphasised that legal residents’ rights will be respected, the timing and intensity of the operations suggest that Puntland may also be seeking to bolster its political standing and attract greater Western military and financial aid.
The semi-autonomous region has long positioned itself as a reliable security partner for US and EU, and its independent counterterrorism actions — while aligning with broader Western objectives — also challenge the authority of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). This reflects internal divisions that can further impact national stability.
Additionally, the move to block IS’s access to financial and telecom infrastructure to curb terrorist financing may push IS to relocate operations to weaker neighbouring states, exacerbating regional instability. The US-Africa Command and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) provide intelligence and air support. Yet, Puntland continues to seek additional military and financial aid to sustain its efforts. Economic ramifications are significant — Bosaso’s port, a crucial commercial hub, could experience disruptions due to restrictions on undocumented individuals and financial transactions. While this may enhance security, it could also deter trade and investment.
Ultimately, Puntland’s crackdown underscores broader geopolitical dynamics, but its long-term impact remains uncertain. Whether this move is a decisive step against transnational terrorism or a calculated bid for increased international backing remains an open question. Without sustained regional coordination and strategic support, the vacuum left by IS could be filled by other extremist factions, keeping Puntland — and Somalia — locked-in in a cycle of insecurity.
Citations:
India Brand Equity Foundation. (2025, February 1). Budget 2025: Shipbuilding gets a massive push from the government, eyeing global trade. India Brand Equity Foundation. https://www.ibef.org/news/budget-2025-shipbuilding-gets-massive-push-from-government-eyeing-global-trade
Indian Association of Development (IAD). (2024, December 30). Guardians of the Seas: India’s maritime security imperative in a strategically challenging environment. Indian Association of Development. https://www.iadb.in/2024/12/30/guardians-of-the-seas-indias-maritime-security-imperative-in-a-strategically-challenging-environment/
U.S. News & World Report. (2025, January 15). India’s navy launches submarines, warships to guard against China’s presence in the Indian Ocean. U.S. News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/business/articles/2025-01-15/indias-navy-launches-submarine-warships-to-guard-against-chinas-presence-in-indian-ocean
Voice of America. (2025, January 15). Puntland blocks illegal entry of foreigners in IS crackdown. Voice of America. https://www.voanews.com/a/puntland-blocks-illegal-entry-of-foreigners-in-is-crackdown/7953395.html
Reuters. (2025, February 7). Puntland offensive deals blow to Islamic State in Somalia. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/puntland-offensive-deals-blow-islamic-state-somalia-2025-02-07/
Abdi, A. H. (2024, December 3). Implications of Somalia’s current turmoil on Puntland. WardheerNews. https://wardheernews.com/implications-of-somalias-current-turmoil-on-puntland/
Yasin, M. A. (2025, February 2). Puntland’s military offensive against ISIS and its wider security implications – ISIS spreading its wings across Africa. WardheerNews. https://wardheernews.com/puntlands-military-offensive-against-isis-and-its-wider-security-implications-isis-spreading-its-wings-across-africa/
